According to the latest forecast, as reported on Campaign Live, this is due to a drop in “linear” ad sales of 23% to £5.2bn, with TV down 17%, radio 24%, print 27%, out-of-home 28% and cinema 55%, which has faced a total shutdown for the past three months.
The figure of 23% compares with a 17% fall in 2009, previously identified as the worst advertising recession on record.
For digital ad sales in the UK, the market is expected to decline around 3% — in line with those of the other four countries in Western Europe: Germany (10.5%), France (13.1%), Italy (14.5%) and Spain (14.3%).
Within UK digital advertising, social and digital video are set to grow during 2020 by 6% respectively, according to Magna. However, search will fall by 5% and banner ads by 10%.
The outlook for 2021 is one of partial recuperation, although the UK market as a whole will remain smaller at the end of next year than it was at the end of 2019, as reported in Campaign Live.
Total growth in 2021 is set to increase by 7.7% while linear media will grow by 7% in 2021, leaving it substantially smaller.
Globally, the ad market will fall 7% this year, down $42bn (£33bn) to $540bn (£429bn). Linear ad sales will drop 16% to $238bn, with TV down 12%. However, the value of digital advertising worldwide will increase by 1% this year to $302bn.
“Beyond the short-term, V-shaped recession/recovery impact on the economy and the advertising market, the COVID-19 crisis will have global and long-term effects on society, business models, consumption habits, mobility and media usage – all factors pointing to a more subdued economic growth and advertising spend than previously forecast for the 2022-2024 period,” said Vincent Létang, executive vice-president, global market intelligence at Magna and author of the report.